Energy and the Mideast Future
Trip Start
Jun 19, 2006
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Trip End
Jun 25, 2006
Istanbul, Turkey
Friday, June 23, 2006
Bottom Line -- our oil problem will be with us for many years. After neglecting to diversify our energy mix the last 25 years, we still have 95% + of our transportation sector (cars, trucks, and busses) dependent on crude oil, of which 77% of the world's reserves are held in the hands of autocratic (and often unfriendly to the West) regimes.
Last year the Arab OPEC states cleared over $700 billion net -- this year it may approach $1 trillion dollars.
And with 800 million Chinese, Indians and SE Asians likely to migrate to the cities in the next 20 years, the demand from cars will only get worse unless we do something radical with automobile engine technology.
A trillion dollars a year flowing to OPEC for as far as the eye can see will have dramatic consequences for those of us who value peace, freedom and pluralism.
First, I fear that the worst elements of society will quadruple their efforts to topple oil rich governments. Either they will succeed or they will be bought off and continue to flourish.
Second, I fear that unlimited funds will be made available to Muslim communities around the globe on the condition that they turn towards more fundamentalist. I hear that in Turkey, Iranians are handing out welfare funds to all those who agree to wear headscarves and burkhas. The rise of Hamas in Palestinian governance is tied to their increasing ability to draw funds from around the fundamentalist Muslim world.
Three weeks ago the courts of Turkey once again upheld the law banning headscarves in government and school workplaces and the ruling judge was assassinated once the fundamentalist newspaper fomented violence against him in the wake of his ruling.
At current gas prices all the autos on the road are using obsolete, misdesigned engines and the US auto companies are in no shape to commit the billions needed to reengineer their entire enterprises.
But as always, the ingenuity of the West can be mobilized to attack this issue. Venture Capital, nanotechnology, and sound government policy can be made to come together to make a dent in this heretofore intractable problem.
On Thursday, I was joined by my friend Professor Carol Saivetz a Harvard scholar of Russian and Mideast Affairs and we arranged to stay a few days to visit the Jewish Community of Turkey.
Carol and I serve on the board of the American Jewish Joint Distribution Community (www.jdc.org) and in recent years the Joint have joined hands with the 25,000 strong Jewish community of Turkey to help the region recover from natural catastrophe (earthquakes, etc...) and terrorist attacks (where many more Muslims have been killed then members of the Jewish Community.
After a briefing from Lina Filiba, Executive VP of the Turkish Jewish Community, we set out to both see the city and the community.
As our first stop we paid our respects to the community's main synagogue, Neve Shalom, which recently reopened after a 2003 Al Queda bombing (who nearly simultaneously blew up the British Consulate and the office of the Hong Kong Shanghai Bank in Istanbul).
The security was immense -- a precleared invitation weeks in advance, several bulletproof and blast proof doors, metal detectors, passport checks. Unfortunately all necessary additions to living as a Jew in this region.
We took in the views from the top of the Galata Tower a defensive lookout built by Justinian in 528 and then headed off to the other side of the Golden Horn to see the Archida Synagogue founded by Macedonian Jews in the late 1400's.
We visited the brand new Ohr Hahayim Geriatric Center which had a beautiful site right on the water and headed of to shop!
The Spice Bazaar and the Grand Bazaar are like the Arab Shouk in Jerusalem times 100.
A quick run through the Blue Mosque and the Sultan Ahmet's tomb and we headed back to Taksim Square to see the night scene and catch some dinner off the Istikal.
